Pixar's newest is like the gift that keeps on giving...
While it was at #3 yesterday, it's set to win the weekend against newcomers The Legend of Tarzan and The Purge: Election Year, the latter of which is mostly a frontloaded title to begin with. The real surprise here was Legend of Tarzan, which was set to do much worse than it did yesterday. Though the $14 million gross isn't terrific, it's still something. I'm not sure if the picture will make back its $180 million budget, but it's an okay-ish start.
Finding Dory is projected to take in at least $40 million for the 3-day, over $50 million for the 4-day, winning overall... That means it'll be at over $380 million by Monday... $380 million... The movie is cruising. Word of mouth is out in full force here, and until The Secret Life of Pets opens next weekend, it's been unrivaled in pretty much every way. Independence Day: Resurgence came and went last weekend, and this weekend the competition wasn't as strong.
On a sad note, The BFG - as expected - has underperformed. The four-day gross is supposed to be less than $25 million, even worse than Alice Through the Looking Glass' three-day gross. Disney marketing barely gave this one a push, despite the fact that Steven Spielberg directed it, it's based on a Roald Dahl book, and was the last script written by the late Melissa Mathison. Disney sees no need for this kind of movie anymore, so this was essentially them getting something off their chests...
Which is unfortunate, considering the pretty good reviews this film has gotten, and again... It's a new Spielberg family-adventure. This should've been a prime Disney theatrical event, not Finding Dory's doormat. If anything, they should've staked out a September/October opening, somewhere a little far from the summer rush, and a decent distance from Pete's Dragon, which might also underperform. Maybe overseas numbers could save it, similar to what happened to Spielberg's own The Adventures of Tintin. Paramount dumped that one in the states, but other territories came to the rescue. It's getting a sequel.
That being said, word-of-mouth from those who actually saw it is said to be pretty positive. Coupled with pretty good reviews, I expect this one to pull a good 3.5x multiplier, getting it to roughly $65 million. It doesn't mean much, unless it makes over $300 million overseas. With a $140 million budget, the pic probably needs to make roughly $350 million in order to break even... Perhaps all of this could've been avoided if Disney marketed the movie better, or... Novel concept... Didn't spend over $100 million on it. Clearly Disney poured the marketing into Dory and left this one to wither. It's a pattern with them now. In May, Civil War got it all and Alice got nearly zilch. Good Dinosaur was quietly thrown out while all the marketing love went into Star Wars.
Finding Dory will cover the loss anyways, and so will Disney's trifecta of autumn hits (Doctor Strange, Moana, and Rogue One). For now, it seems like Pixar's fish sequel will finally be the one to dethrone Shrek 2 at the domestic box office and become the highest-grossing animated movie here. Shrek 2 has kept the crown since 2004, with an unadjusted $441 million. Ever since its release, the films that came the closest to topping it were Toy Story 3 ($415 million) and Frozen ($400 million). Finding Dory looks to pass that by the end of July. Everything will come full circle, for the record-holder before Shrek 2 was Finding Nemo.
So again, how high does it go? I don't believe that animated movies cannibalize each other, with that I think Finding Dory will co-exist with The Secret Life of Pets. If audiences really like both movies, people will keep coming and will see both. Zootopia held up fine against big blockbusters, family flicks like The Angry Birds Movie, and Disney's own Jungle Book, so this should hold on. Pets shouldn't take too much wind out of the sail, Ice Age 5 won't be a roadblock... Yeah, Finding Dory actually could land in the 470-480 region, if not higher... It might even have a slight shot at $500 million domestically. A first for an animated feature...
To be updated with weekend estimates tomorrow...
Where do you think Finding Dory will end up?